Atmospheric Modelling (B-KUL-G0B78A)

6 ECTSEnglish54 First termCannot be taken as part of an examination contract
POC Geografie en toerisme

Atmospheric models are used for numerical weather prediction. In addition are atmospheric models an important component of the ‘state-of-the-art’ climate models, which are used to gain insight in palaeoclimatology, present-day climatology and for climate projections for the future. At the end of the course the students should be able to:
- Describe and explain how atmospheric models work
- Describe and explain the physical processes that are taken into account in atmospheric models
- Analyse and interpret observed and modelled phenomena, based on the underlying theory of how the atmosphere behaves and how atmospheric models work
- Derive physical laws from the basis equations that were discussed during the lectures
- Predict how the atmosphere will behave in certain situations, based on the theory discussed during the lectures
- Present a scientific paper in a clear way including a critical reflection on the paper
- Contribute to a discussion on scientific papers and – based on arguments given during this discussion – evaluate the value of the paper
- Synthesize information and identify relationships between the theoretical framework and the current scientific debate (from the literature)
- Apply theory and formulas in exercises
- Process, visualize and analyse model output
- Develop a computer model which simulates the advection of a wave using different numerical techniques

This course starts from a basic knowledge of programming in Matlab, as covered by the course Geographical Research Methods 3: Numerical Modelling. In addition, the course starts from a basic knowledge of meteorological processes as covered by the course Weer- en klimaatkunde KU Leuven or Klimatologie en oceanografie VUB. Alternatively, the following chapters of the textbook Meteorlogy Today - C.D. Ahrens can be taken as starting point for this course:

- Chapter 1: The earth and its atmosphere
- Chapter 2: Energy: warming the earth and the atmosphere
- Chapter 5: Atmospheric moisture
- Chapter 6: Condensation: Dew, fog and clouds
- Chapter 7: Stability and cloud development
- Chapter 8: Precipitation
- Chapter 9: The atmosphere in motion: air pressure, forces and wind
- Chapter 11: Wind: global systems
- Chapter 13: Midlatitude cyclones


This course unit is a prerequisite for taking the following course units:
G0D06A : Advanced Land-Climate Dynamics

Activities

4.5 ects. Atmospheric Modelling: Lectures (B-KUL-G0B78a)

4.5 ECTSEnglishFormat: Lecture33 First term
POC Geografie en toerisme

Introduction in modeling the climate system and the role of the atmosphere
Processes, resolution and parametrizations
Weather forecasting versus climate models
Climate models
Numerical weather prediction
Nowcasting
Atmospheric dynamics
Extratropical cyclones
Horizontal equation of motion
Geostrophic and thermal wind
Basic equations for the conservations of mass, heat, momentum, water, gasses and aerosols
The primitive equations: a simplification of the basic equations
Numerical discretisation: Finite difference method, truncation errors and consistency, convergence and stability criteria
Cloud and precipitation processes
Nucleation of wate vapor condensation
Microstructures of warm clouds
Cloud liquid water content and entrainment
Growth of cloud droplets in warm clouds
Parametrisation of clouds and precipitation
Inferred, simple and complex cloud schemes
Convertive parametrisations
Parametrisation of clouds and precipitation in the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) model
Evaluating clouds and precipitation from atmospheric models
Verification: traditional skill scores, “fuzzy”verification scores, object-oriented verification scores
Evaluating climatologies
Long-term evaluation
Regime dependent evaluation
Case studies

-         Wallace, John M. and Peter V. Hobbs, 2006. Atmospheric Science, Volume 92, Second Edition: An Introductory Survey, Academic Press; 2 edition, 506pp, ISBN: 978-0127329512.
-         Meteorology Education and Training (MetEd): http://www.meted.ucar.edu/
-         COSMO parametrization of clouds and precipitation: COSMO homepage: http://www.cosmo-model.org/
-         Scientific papers
-         Powerpoint presentations
-         Toledo website

In about 36 hours it is discussed how atmospheric models work and what are the physical processes that are taken into account in atmospheric models. Both dynamical and physical concepts of atmospheric models are covered by the course. For the dynamical part, the theory of atmospheric dynamics is discussed it is explained how primitive equations are discretised and programmed. For the physical part of the atmospheric model, we focus on the processes of cloud and precipitation formation. The learning activities consist of interpretation of information given by the lecturer, in which active participation of the student is required by questions and tasks. Each students will also present a (part of) a scientific paper including a critical reflection on the paper. After that, a discussion on scientific papers will take place with the entire group of students. It is expected that all students read the paper before the lecture and prepare questions and reflections on the paper. Take home assignments are given in which the students apply the physical and empirical laws in order to 1. – predict the evolution of the atmospheric system in a certain situation and 2. – simplify the equations to make them suitable to solve specific problems. It is expected that the students perform these take home assignments and that they read the course material related to the session before the next session. Time is reserved to answer questions on the take home assignments and on the course material.

1.5 ects. Atmospheric Modelling: Practical Work (B-KUL-G0B79a)

1.5 ECTSEnglishFormat: Practical21 First term
POC Geografie en toerisme

Introduction in modeling the climate system and the role of the atmosphere
Processes, resolution and parametrizations
Weather forecasting versus climate models
Climate models
Numerical weather prediction
Nowcasting
Atmospheric dynamics
Extratropical cyclones
Horizontal equation of motion
Geostrophic and thermal wind
Basic equations for the conservations of mass, heat, momentum, water, gasses and aerosols
The primitive equations: a simplification of the basic equations
Numerical discretisation: Finite difference method, truncation errors and consistency, convergence and stability criteria
Cloud and precipitation processes
Nucleation of wate vapor condensation
Microstructures of warm clouds
Cloud liquid water content and entrainment
Growth of cloud droplets in warm clouds
Parametrisation of clouds and precipitation
Inferred, simple and complex cloud schemes
Convertive parametrisations
Parametrisation of clouds and precipitation in the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) model
Evaluating clouds and precipitation from atmospheric models
Verification: traditional skill scores, “fuzzy”verification scores, object-oriented verification scores
Evaluating climatologies
Long-term evaluation
Regime dependent evaluation
Case studies

(See G0B79a Atmospheric Modelling)

Three projects are performed by the students using matlab, high-performance computing, linux, netcdf and cdo:

Project 1: Introduction (4 contact hours): Introduction to HPC (linux environment, commands); Working with GCM output (netcdf and visualisation in matlab / idrisi; cdo)

Project2: Numerics (4 contact hours + 5 hours working independently). Develop a simple computer model in MATLAB which simulates the advection of a wave using different numerical techniques.

Project3: COSMO modeling (8 contact hours + 9 hours working independently: Setup of COSMO model run, model configuration and start of the runs. Analyse COSMO model run, comparison between sensitivity and control run, interpretation. Evaluation of COSMO run using measurements.

Evaluation

Evaluation: Atmospheric Modelling (B-KUL-G2B78a)

Type : Partial or continuous assessment with (final) exam during the examination period
Description of evaluation : Written, Paper/Project, Presentation
Type of questions : Open questions
Learning material : Course material, Calculator, Reference work


The exam will consist of five parts:
-         A written examination (open book) [weight is 50% of the total score]. The exam will take place during the examination period. It will be tested whether the students have reached the goals that were set at the beginning of the course (see above).The student will need a miminum score of 9 out of 20 for this part of the examination to pass for the entire course. If the score on this part of the examination is lower than 9 out of 20, this score will be the final score of the entire course.
-         A written examination [weight is 20% of the total score] will be taking place during the examination period. During this exam, students need to show that they are able to apply theory and formulas in exercises.
-         A presentation of a (part of) a scientific paper including a critical reflection on the paper. [weight is 10% of the total score]
-         An evaluation of the report of project 2 (described above) [weight is 10% of the total score]. The deadline for handing in the report can be found on Toledo.
-         An evaluation of the report of project 3 (described above) [weight is 10% of the total score]. The deadline for handing in the report can be found on Toledo.
Note that two deadlines are set for handing in project reports. When reports are handed in too late, 1 point per week per report will be substracted from the total final score of 20 points.

The score that was obtained for the report of project 2 and 3 and the presentation (described above) [weight is 10%+10%+10% of the total score] will be retained even if these reports or presentation were insufficient or not handed in (in this case the score will be 0 out of 20). The written examinations will be re-taken during the August exam period, using the same weights as during the first exam period. The score of the practicum reports and presentation cannot be carried over to the next academic year and needs to be re-done and handed in even if you passed for the practicum or the presentation during the previous academic year.